Questions to consider

• How much should we rely on expected value (EV) estimates?
• What is pascals mugging, is this something we should be worried about?
• Do we endorse hits-based giving?

Resources

Articles with a ⭐ in front are worth focussing on first, as this is an optional week the reading a looser summary, you're encouraged to go research other information on this topic!

Expected Value Theory

• ⭐ Why Maximize Expected Value? (Brian Tomasik, 2016) (post - 15 mins)
• ⭐ Why we can’t take expected value estimates literally (even when they’re unbiased) (Holden Karnofsky / GiveWell, 2011) (post - 21 mins)
• Deworming might have huge impact, but might have close to zero impact (GiveWell, 2017) (post - 7 mins)
• The Allais Paradox (Eliezer Yudkowsky, 2008) (post - 3 mins)

Risk Aversion

• ⭐ Pascal’s mugging (Nick Bostrom, 2009) (paper - 6 mins)**
• ⭐ Risk Aversion (EA Forum topics page - 2 mins)
• In this universe, you have to be risk neutral (Ethical Haydonism blog, 2020) (post - 14 mins)
• Hits-based giving (Holden Karnofsky / Open Philanthropy, 2016) (post - 25 mins)
• Salary or startup? How do-gooders can gain more from risky careers (Carl Shulman, 2012) (post - 5 mins)
• When Should Altruists Be Financially Risk-Averse? (Brian Tomasik, 2016) (post - 13 mins)

Crucial considerations

• ⭐ Crucial Considerations and Wise Philanthropy (Nick Bostrom, 2014) (talk - 49 mins / transcript - 31 mins)